Weekend rain ahead for RVA
Some high winds and flooding along our tidal rivers
5pm Wednesday, October 8, 2025
Late Wednesday afternoon, the wind shifted and started coming from the north, sending cooler and drier air into Virginia. In fact, you may have noticed it was much less humid late this afternoon compared to the morning, and this signals the coolest air so far this season.
Specifically for Richmond: Thursday and Friday afternoons will average in the lower to middle 60s, and the nights will be in the 40s to near 50. The coolest period comes on Thursday night, when temperatures by daybreak Friday will be into the middle 40s, perhaps even closer to 40° in some of the cooler spots farther away from the city limits.
The last time it was below 45° in Richmond was April 18 (43°).
This does get us thinking about the date of the first freeze, but in Richmond, we typically still have some time.
Since daily weather records began in Richmond in 1897, the average date of the first freeze (32°) is November 2. But as the climate has warmed — yes from the burning of fossil fuels — that average over the last 30 years has shifted 5 days later — to November 7.
The shorter-term analysis since 1970 below is more striking:
The extremes:
Earliest — October 3 (1974)
Latest —December 2 (1985)
Weekend coastal storm
Thursday will be sunnier and breezier than Friday, and clouds will increase further on Saturday as a coastal storm takes shape just offshore from the Carolinas.
If you have outdoor plans for Sunday, start thinking if you can move them up to Saturday.
The precise track of this storm will determine how much rain we get in Richmond, but it appears that areas west of Richmond (Midlothian, Short Pump) will get less than areas east of Richmond (Highland Springs, Varina).
While some smaller showers may sneak into the metro area starting Saturday afternoon or evening, most of the rain comes very late Saturday night and throughout Sunday.
The early idea is for about 1-2 inches of rain across the metro area before it ends on Sunday, but more is certainly possible, depending on how far east the storm tracks and how slow it moves. However, that is probably not enough for significant flooding of streams and creeks. Those levels are starting near or lower than normal (below)
There will be some gustier northeast winds as the storm approaches Saturday night and early Sunday — 15 to 25 mph in Richmond. Although wind damage is not expected, coastal flooding along the north-facing shores of nearby tidal rivers (Potomac, Rappahannock, York, James) is expected given that wind speed and direction.
At the immediate shorelines and over the water, wind speeds will approach 40 mph. Some gusts over the open Chesapeake Bay will be closer to 50 mph on Sunday and Sunday night. Secure boats if you have them.
This will be storm-based coastal flooding, but even away from storms, high tide coastal flooding is increasing in Virginia as the sea level keeps rising due to the warming climate.
Using Sewells Point in Norfolk (above) as a reference, the number of days with coastal flooding has increased from once or twice a year in the 1950s to regularly a dozen times a year in the 2020s.
Temperatures will be in the 60s most of the weekend, perhaps creeping to 70° on Saturday afternoon and edging into the upper 50s in the rain on Saturday night.
There is still some question about how quickly the storm moves away on Sunday evening, so light rain may persist into Monday. Then the rest of next week (Tuesday-Friday) looks quieter with sun and clouds each day and temperatures in the 60s during the day and 40s to near 50 at night.
Tropics
Tropical storm Jerry is a couple of hundred miles east of the Caribbean and will impact the Virgin Islands before turning north and back out to sea. While it is expected to become a hurricane, it will not approach the East Coast.
The other job
Our campaign for Congress continues, as I recently talked with the folks at the Three Degrees Podcast about what is going on with renewable energy, data centers, and the warming climate.
Why am I running for congress? I read what you read and see the desire for new voices to come forward. So I want to bring science, data, and experience back to Washington in 2026 to get better outcomes for Virginians in reducing costs, simplifying healthcare, and acting on climate. And yes, we want to hold the corrupt Trump administration accountable.
We are running for Virginia’s First Congressional District, which we tour with you in the video below.
If that sounds good, share with your friends and help us build the foundation of our campaign at seanforva.com.
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