Warmer RVA weekend, but with wrinkles
And more cumbersome funding realities for the National Weather Service
4:30pm Wednesday, April 2, 2025
Warmer times are ahead Thursday through the weekend in Richmond. It will not be especially sunny, but occasional gusty winds from the southwest will be enough to send temperatures about 10-15 degrees above normal.
A couple of tiny showers may wander through on Thursday or Friday, but neither of those days looks especially wet. Each afternoon will hover around 80 degrees.
Both Saturday and Sunday afternoons will reach the 70s, and Sunday likely gets into the 80s. However, there is one important caution about Saturday.
There is still a question about a mass of chilly air sneaking southward down the east side of the Appalachians on Friday afternoon or Friday night, which could result in a cloudier and cooler afternoon on Saturday in Richmond.
When cool air comes in from the northeast, rather than the northwest, it is often referred to as a back-door cold front, as weather systems usually move from west to east across the country.
However, during the winter and early spring, the clockwise winds around an area of high pressure in New England can sometimes turn our winds from the northeast, sending cool air southward into Virginia.
If that air drags across the cold waters of the upper Chesapeake Bay, we can also get especially cloudy.
The data over the last couple of days suggests this back-door front will advance southward into Virginia, but not really push much beyond Richmond — giving us room for cautious optimism if you want sunshine and an afternoon in the 70s on Saturday.
After a warmer Sunday, a more consistent rain will move through late Sunday into Monday, signaling a return to cooler air — from the more traditional direction — for the start of next week.
Frost next week?
Most of next week will be near or cooler than normal, but the serious cold is expected to hold farther north. This would send Richmond into the 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday nights next week, raising the possibility of some frost. However, it does not look like a legitimate killing freeze is ahead.
Once that cooler air retreats for the second half of next week, the data indicate a couple of chilly spells through the middle of the month. After that, temperatures are expected to be near or above normal for the second half of April. All of this indicates that we have probably had our last freeze of the season (it was 32 degrees on the morning of March 27).
On occasion, Richmond does drop to the freezing mark in early May, but it is rare. The latest occurrence was in the spring of 1966 — on May 11. More recently, in 2020, we dropped to 32 degrees on May 10.
But there is nothing to suggest a night with several hours in the upper 20s is coming over the next few weeks.
What happens in the Arctic does not stay there
Remember how cold January was across Virginia? Our cold air has to come from a source, and in our case, the coldest winter air has its origins in the Arctic.
North of Canada is the Arctic Ocean, and the extent of the ice covering the Arctic Ocean varies with the seasons — smallest in the late summer and largest in the late winter.
Last week, as winter was winding down in the Arctic, the National Snow and Ice Data Center reported that the Arctic sea ice had reached its maximum extent for the season.
But that extent was its lowest on record, another physical sign of the planet’s warming climate.
When there is less ice covering the Arctic Ocean, that means there is more open water. As you might guess, liquid water absorbs more energy from the sun than the reflective ice.
This creates a net warming in the Arctic and a feedback loop — more ice melts, leaving more open water to absorb solar energy, further warming the Arctic, melting more ice, and so on.
As a result, the Arctic is warming about three times faster than the rest of the planet. Because our coldest air originates from there, our winters are not as cold as a generation or two ago.
For as cold as last January was, we did not set a single record low in Richmond — and we only had one morning below 10 degrees.
With winters becoming less cold, spring trees and plants are blooming earlier in the season, and pollen is getting worse, serving as a direct reminder that what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic.
NOAA National Weather Service
Earlier this week, a new requirement from the Department of Commerce threatened the regular operations of the NOAA National Weather Service, introducing cumbersome regulations that hamper the smooth operations of the NWS mission of saving lives and protecting property.
Upgrades and support of the primary software system used by NWS field offices was at risk as a new contract was up for renewal in April. The software, known as the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is a core technology of 21st century operations.
From my meteorologist colleague Barb Mayes Boustead, who authors Wilder Weather:
“AWIPS *support and development* would have ceased until the contract was paid. That includes operating NCF (the "oh no, something broke" help line), addressing trouble tickets. AWIPS would not have ceased to function.”
For more about the value of the environmental intelligence that NOAA provides to the American people, listen to this discussion between outgoing NOAA Administrator Rick Sprinrad and University of Georgia’s Marshall Shepherd on the Weather Geeks podcast, appropriately titled, Is NOAA Going to be Okay?
Along those same lines, the NWS allowed a contract with a foreign-translation service to expire at the end of last month, hampering their ability to efficiently protect lives and property in parts of the country where English is not the dominant language.
The cost of that contract is tiny within the full NOAA budget, $1.1 million in 2024, less than 0.02 percent of the agency’s annual budget. Cutting it does nothing to improve efficiency and is a deliberately callous move to Americans who do not speak English.