Summer doldrums for RVA
Enjoy a quieter period while we have it
3pm, August 14, 2024
The Short Version
Aside from a scattering of showers and thunderstorms here or there Friday through Monday, the chance of a legitimate soaking rain is very low in Richmond for the next 10 days. And big heat also stays away from Richmond through the end of next week.
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Full story: For August, it’s not bad
Most of the weather news ahead in Richmond is good. Hurricane Ernesto will not impact Virginia — or anywhere along the East Coast from the New Jersey shore to Miami Beach. Plus, any big August heat will stay away from Virginia for at least 10 days, perhaps longer.
For the shorter term this weekend in Richmond, be on the lookout for a quick area of showers and thunderstorms between late Saturday afternoon and deep into Saturday night. A smaller scattering will also be out there on Sunday, but the chances are better on Saturday (60%) versus Sunday (30%).
None of the showers or storms this weekend are expected to be strong enough to cause damage from wind, and they appear short-lived enough to keep away any threat of flash flooding. For places that do manage some rain this weekend, it will be in the range of a tenth to a quarter-inch.
After a small chance of showers on Monday, the rest of next week also appears to be dry, with minimal chances of rain between Tuesday (8/20) and Friday (8/23).
Turning to the tropics
Hurricane Ernesto will remain several hundred miles offshore in the Atlantic, but it will churn up high waves and rough surf that will survive all the way to the Outer Banks. If you are heading to the beach this weekend, be ready for an ocean that looks a bit rough.
And remember the threat from rip currents. If you get stuck in one and it starts to pull you away from shore, don’t fight the current. Instead, swim parallel to the shore line until you are out of the current — then swim back to the beach.
Keeping the heat away
Although it will turn more humid this weekend, the humidity will not reach the stifling levels we had over the past few weeks. In fact, the same west and northwest winds that will keep Ernesto from coming onshore will also keep the higher heat away from Virginia next week.
Afternoon temperatures next week will be near normal — in the middle to upper 80s — and there is not even a suggestion of 90+ days in the data until the weekend of August 24-25. Even then, the data indicate that any spell of bigger heat would only last a day or so here in Virginia. The true anchor of the heat over the next couple of weeks will be in the western half of the country.
July is getting more humid
Despite the recent break in the heat over the last few days, August is still running hotter than normal so far in Richmond — more a result from the low temperatures versus the highs. This impact has largely carried over from last month, which was the most humid July in Richmond since 2005. Muggy nights cannot cool as much as less humid ones, thus the warmer low temperatures.
If you think July has been getting more humid over the years, it is not your imagination. A warmer climate allows for more evaporation — and thus — higher humidity. Last month was the 10th consecutive July that was more humid than the long-term average (since 1943).
Looking longer
Beyond next week, the weather pattern remains drier than normal. Over the next two weeks, the total expected rain is between 1-2 inches in Richmond, with more data leaning toward the lower end of that range. Last week’s rain from Debby helped out the water tables and streams statewide, and most flows are still above average. But surfaces will likely dry quickly next week and probably get a bit drier into the last of the month.
After Ernesto moves into the North Atlantic, the tropics look temporarily quieter. However, closer to the end of the month, development is expected in the central part of the Atlantic — in what is known as the Main Development Region (MDR) between the Caribbean Sea and the northwest coast of Africa. Climatologically, the season peaks around the middle of September, so remember, most of the hurricane season is still ahead of us.
But if you have a week at OBX planned next week (Aug 18-24), you need not worry about a hurricane this year.