Snow stock is up for RVA Sunday night

New data is more bullish, but there are still caveats

2pm Friday, January 3, 2025

About the storm coming late Sunday afternoon into Monday for Richmond:

Much of the new data this afternoon is more bullish toward significant accumulating snow in Richmond. More importantly, there appears to be a definitive trend in the data over the last 36 hours toward more snow. However, discretion suggests waiting about another 24 hours before taking any actions or making any loud proclamations.

Notably, there will also be a large variation in snow from north to south across Virginia. The mountains will not necessarily get more snow than areas eastward (e.g. Fredericksburg and Richmond).

Also in Richmond, be on the lookout for some freezing rain or sleet very late Sunday night or early Monday morning — before all precipitation ends as a quick burst of snow early Monday afternoon.

Compared to 24 hours ago, I’d increase our odds of a plowable snow in Richmond, but it is still not a done deal. Having to make the call right now, I’d go with 2-4 inches of snow in Richmond, with a couple of inches more north toward Ashland. Perhaps an additional inch or so on top of that farther north toward Fredericksburg.

Amounts will drop quickly south toward Petersburg, and across Dinwiddie and Prince George Counties. A coating or an inch seems to be a better guess in those places right now — as there will be more freezing rain and sleet mixing in.

For those who like to play the odds, a small nudge in the Richmond probabilities:

• 10%: 6+ inches of snow

• 40%: 2-6 inches of snow w/ some light mix (frz rain)

• 40%: Less than 2 inches snow w/ more mix or even rain at the end

• 10%: No accumulating snow at all (dusting, then a mix finishing as rain)

Regardless, travel will become challenging starting late Sunday evening. And a harder freeze of surfaces and non-treated roads will occur after sunset Monday night, when temperatures drop into the lower 20s.

There is still a distinct possibility that Richmond could find itself in the sweet spot — meaning 8 to 12 inches of snow. I do not think we are there yet. But if the data are sending the same message by Saturday afternoon, that may be the final call.

Will prep an update on Saturday.