No cold, no rain
A quiet RVA record will likely fall in November
3pm Wednesday, October 30, 2024
The Short Version
No substantial rain is ahead for through the first part of next week — perhaps much longer. And it will be deep into November before we have a freeze.
Full Story: Scarily dry and warm this Halloween
The big news is that there has not been any substantial change.
The question is: how much longer can this go?
Both Monday and Tuesday mornings in Richmond dropped to 40 degrees. Of course, more rural and suburban areas edged into the 30s a few times this month.
But even at my home west of the city limits, the lowest temperature so far this month was 38.8 degrees on the morning of Friday, October 18.
It is a foregone conclusion Richmond will go well into November before its first freeze (32 degrees or colder) this year, and there are indications it will not happen until deep into the month.
Over the entire 20th century, the average date of the first freeze in Richmond was October 31. So far in the 21st century, that average has backed a week later into the calendar: November 7.
The latest first freeze on record in Richmond came in 1985, waiting until December 2.
No Jacket Required
More quietly, another warm record is in serious trouble: the first fall occurrence of a morning low below 40 degrees.
Since daily weather records began in 1897 in Richmond, the first fall morning below 40 has come as early as September 21 (1956) and as late as November 7 (1897).
This coming weekend will bring lows in the 40s, but there is no sign of a low below 40 until at least the second full week of November, and even those signs are middling at best.
There is a strong chance that we will go through the first two weeks of November without getting below 40 — crushing that old record.
As alluded to last week, this will be the 3rd October in the last 5 years that did not have a night below 40 degrees.
It happened only 3 other times over the entire 20th century.
Overall, the next two weeks appear warmer than normal. Below is the ensemble average forecast for daily high/low temperatures from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). The solid lines indicate the normal high (red) and low (blue) for the time of year.
There is no sign of truly cold weather for at least two weeks.
October will finish about 2 degrees warmer than normal — the 11th consecutive month above normal. And we continue to edge out 2012, 2019, and 2023 as the warmest calendar year on record through the end of October.
This may not be the warmest October on record, but it does continue the theme as the climate warms.
And make no mistake, planetary warming has not stopped. Concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide — one of the primary greenhouse gases — continues to rise from the burning of fossil fuels.
It remains at its highest concentration since the dawn of human civilization.
Parched
Over the last four weeks, total rainfall has been 0.03 inches in Richmond, all of which came on October 15.
Even with the 0.58 inches that fell on October 1, Richmond will have its 10th driest October on record.
A weak system approaches from the west on Friday, but its rain is expected to dry up on the windward side of the Appalachians. The end result: no rain Friday and a cooler weekend to follow.
Another system will approach on the 6th or 7th, but it also looks especially weak.
Outside of those two blips, there is no significant rain ahead through the first 10 days of November, probably longer.
The driest 6-week period on record in Richmond came in the fall of 2000, with 0.01” ending on November 8, so that is not a record we will be playing with. But we are in a very dry ballpark right now.
Remember fall fire season continues until the end of November. Please don’t burn stuff outside.
Quick outlook for upcoming events
Halloween evening (6-8pm):
Breezy, warm, dry. Temperature falling from the mid 70s to upper 60s.
Weekend:
Mostly sunny both days, and cooler.
Afternoons in the mid-upper 60s, daybreak in the mid 40s.
Election Day:
Mostly sunny, breezy, warm. Afternoon in the mid 70s.