Flood Watch for RVA
What that means and what to expect
4:30pm Monday, May 12, 2025
Our colleagues at the National Weather Service this afternoon issued a Flood Watch for Richmond (and effectively all of Virginia along and east of I-81) through late Tuesday night (green shade below).
The first wave of showers has already moved into Richmond, and rain is expected to continue tonight and most of tomorrow. There will be some pauses here or there and the intensity will vary, but 1.5 to 2.0 inches of rain will be common before a more legitimate break late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
At its core, a Flood Watch means conditions are becoming favorable to produce flooding. A Flood Warning means flooding is about to happen (or is happening). Be mindful of that later Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.
Invariably, there will be smaller, heavier pockets of rain moving through this broader area of rain that covers much of the state, so a total of 3-4 inches of rain is possible beneath some of those heavier pockets, and this is why the Flood Watch was issued.
There will be some thunderstorms mixed in with this rain, but this is not a wind damage or hail situation. Heavy rain gets top billing.
During Tuesday, there will be standing and ponding of water around metro Richmond — mainly areas that don’t drain well or low lying areas where creeks used to run decades ago. In terms of highly traveled roads, I think about I-64/95 near Chamberlayne Avenue or that stretch of Midlothian Turnpike just east of Chippenham Parkway.
While I do not expect there to be massive flooding of streams and creeks by late Tuesday, the risk is there and should be respected.
And as my colleagues in this line of work like to remind you, don’t drive into areas where water covers the road.
Secondarily, there will be also be heavy rain upriver from Richmond, meaning the James River will rise relatively quickly starting Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
The river is expected to get near flood stage during Wednesday, and there is a chance it exceeds it by a few feet. But for the moment, it does not appear necessary to close the flood wall.