Cold around the corner will lock in
December may deliver a result unseen in 16 months
4pm Wednesday, November 27, 2024.
The coldest weather so far this season is coming right after Thanksgiving, and it will anchor itself in Virginia (and most of the eastern U.S. for that matter).
First off, most of the rain in Richmond on Thanksgiving Day will be in the morning, although some spottier showers may linger into the early afternoon. Rain will not be heavy or especially consistent during the morning, totaling a quarter-inch or less.
Southwest breezes will nudge temperatures into the 60s during the afternoon once the rain finishes up on Thursday, then it will not be that warm again for at least a week, perhaps 10 days, and maybe even longer.
No rain (or snow!) is coming Friday through Sunday, but the cold will get top billing.
Friday will hold close to 50°, then both Saturday and Sunday will stall in the lower to middle 40s during the afternoons.
Look for a fair amount of sun both Friday and Saturday, and more clouds on Sunday. All three afternoons will bring occasional breezes from the west or northwest, locking in the cold.
This also means the coldest nights so far this season are ahead.
Daybreak on Friday will be right around 32°, so dress in layers if you are waiting outside before daybreak for some of the Black Friday shenanigans.
But both Saturday and Sunday mornings will be well down into the 20s, bringing a hard freeze on back-to-back nights. No nights so far this season have gone deep into the 20s, so it may come as a shock to the system heading out the door on those weekend mornings.
No real break next week
Monday through Thursday will remain cold (40s in the day, 20s at night), as the entire weather pattern has fundamentally shifted from the last several weeks. Consistent winds aloft from the northwest will send reinforcing shots of Arctic air into Richmond, preventing any serious warm up.
Of course, as the cold settles in, it is natural to think snow will follow.
That will not be the case. The northwest flow also keeps moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean from getting involved with any weak storm system passing through, so do not expect any significant snow next week either.
Although it will be cold, and there will probably be a lot of snickering about global warming, some reminders.
Normal highs in the first week of December are in the low-mid 50s. Normal lows are in the low 30s. Temperatures next week will generally be 5-10 degrees below normal, which is far from anything resembling record cold.
So far in 2024, there have been 46 days that were at least 10 degrees warmer than normal. Nine of those came in November.
Conversely, there have only been 6 days all year that were at least 10 degrees colder than normal. Four of those came in January.
That’s a overall warm-to-cold ratio of more than 7 to 1.
Weather is like a quarter in a football game. Climate is the entire season.
How far from records?
Record lows during the first 10 days of December in Richmond are all in the teens. The warmest record low is 19° (12/2/1965), the coldest is 10° (12/4/1940).
Because that record on December 2 is relatively high, we will be within shouting distance of it this coming Monday morning, but we will probably miss it by a few degrees.
As further testament to the warming climate, the last time we set any record low in December was 35 years ago, dropping to 9° on the morning of December 23, 1989.
The cold weather pattern will ease toward the middle of the month, but there are signs that December — as a whole — may be the first month significantly below normal since June 2023.
That may already have you thinking about a White Christmas, but let’s get through Thanksgiving first. Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving Day!